Football is one of the most loved sports by people all around the world. No matter what part of the globe you go, there will at least be one football fan. When it comes to betting again, football takes the lead here too. More people bet on football more than any other sport since football is considered the most predictable sport out there. In football, it can be pretty tough to bet on draws and win. Predicting football draws can be a bit difficult for someone new, but it is doable if you know what to do.
How to bet on Draws-Finding Values:
Draws bets are the same as any other form of football betting. You bet on the match result to end in a draw. The odds in these types of betting can be high, as many punters usually bet in favor of a team instead of a draw. If you correctly choose a particular match to result in a draw, you can win higher profits because of the odds being in your favor.
When it comes to soccer betting, most if not all football fans vote on their favorite team rather than the favorable outcome. Most Chelsea fans always vote for Chelsea even if the team is not favorable to win a particular match or a Man Utd supporter always backing its team for victory. What this means is the bookmaker’s liability is staked usually on either team to win by the fans.
If the people betting on a particular odds (draw in our case) is less compared to other outcomes(win or loss), then the bookmaker would increase the odds of that outcome(draw), while lowering the odds of the other outcomes(win or loss). It means punters need to stake the same amount of money but receive more profits from a draw than that on the win or loss. For example, if the odds of a draw is 9/4, and if the majority bet for either a win or a loss, the bookie will raise the odds of the draw from 11/9 to maybe 5/2 or even sometimes to 3/1.
Find the teams with the most draws:
In football, winning draw bets can be pretty easy if you research the teams that are playing the match. There are two cases in football that might mostly result in a draw. When two strong teams go head-on-head there is a possibility of a draw. When two weak teams go head-to-head, again there is a possibility of a draw.
There are many leagues in football. If you are interested in draw bets, then it is recommended to start with one league at a time, and it is also recommended that the league you pick be one of European’s top leagues. Here is the list of top European leagues and their percentage of draws:
- EPL: 23.67% of draws in the year 2020-2021.
- La Liga: 30.00% of draws in the year 2020-2021.
- Serie A: 25.61% of draws in the year 2020-2021.
- Bundesliga: 27.16% of draws in the year 2020-2021.
- Ligue 1: 25.81% of draws in the year 2020-2021.
As you can see the percentage of draws for the top European Leagues are lost than most of the other B and C leagues. But the reason to start with one of European’s top leagues is that most of the quality players play for these leagues, and the news and betting-related information in these top leagues are more in numbers, hence making your draw bets easier.
Look for low-stake matches:
Low-Stake matches are those where the teams don’t have any real purpose to fight for. Hence, they would have no motivation at all. It could be either a friendly match or a match between a team and the league title winners.
Look for games with low expected goals:
Teams having low possessions or teams which love counter-attacks often tend to not score a lot many goals. As I have already mentioned before, two strong teams or two weak teams playing against each other also ends in a draw since the attacking and defensive strengths seem to match each other. This is one way to predict draws.
Another way is to search for teams that concede less and also score fewer goals. These teams also have more probability of getting into a draw.
How to Predict Draws-A Mathematical Approach:
While we know the percentage of draws from the top European leagues, it is highly unlikely to predict which match will end up in a draw. Hence, to calculate the odds, bookmakers and draw betting systems use certain mathematical approaches to foretell the possibility of an outcome, be it a win, loss, a draw, or a specific score. The two most commonly used methods are Poisson Distribution and Normal Distribution.
Poisson Distribution:
One of the commonly used mathematical approaches by draw betting systems and bookies around the world is Poisson Distribution. It is a method that used the probability distribution to predict how likely an event/outcome is to occur. Anyone can use this method to calculate the likelihood of a specific event occurring in football matches. To start with, we need to first calculate the league’s average goal expectancy as well as the attack strength and the defensive strength of both the teams playing.
Attack strength is the average goals scored by the team divided by the average number of league goals.
Defensive strength is the average goals conceded by the team divided by the average number of league goals conceded.
After calculating the likelihood of every specific score, you can add the probability of every drawing score.
Normal Distribution:
Normal Distribution uses a statistical method to calculate the averages as well as how often they occur. In most cases, two teams may have the same average score but one team might perform consistently, and the other might under or over-perform from time to time. By standard deviation, you can calculate by how much and how often the results differ from the mean value.
Football Draws Betting Systems:
There are a lot of draw betting systems and the two most recommended by us are the backing the draw system and 2 out of 5 system.
Backing the Draws System:
As we know that most punters and football fans bet on the teams to win, the odds of a draw will be less. Hence, the bookmaker increases the odds of a draw. In such cases, if you bet on three different matches to be a draw with each of its odds being 3/1, and if you win just one of the bets, you will still be profitable.
2 out of 5 System:
As the name suggests, you only have to win two out of the five bettings, to make a profit.
How to predict football draws?
You could either use the above-mentioned draw betting systems like Poisson or Normal Distribution method or if you are already knowledgable about football, you can predict draws from your research.
Betting on Football Draws FAQs:
Q1. What is the percentage of football matches ending in a draw?
The percentage depends on the league you choose to bet on. Every league has its share of draws. As listed above, EPL has 23.67%, Ligue 1 has 25.81% whereas La Liga has 30.00% of draws.
Q2. What percentage do football matches end in 0-0?
A draw with goals(1-1, 3-3) is more likely to occur than a 0-0 draw. This applies especially to the top European leagues. In fact, the percentage of draws ending with a 0-0 scoreline in football is just 8%.
Q3. Which league draws the most often?
The is no one league that draws most often year after year. Drawing depends on the teams and the players and managers in each. Hence, before starting, it is recommended to check updated facts on league draws.
